{"id":222,"date":"2026-05-21T01:53:01","date_gmt":"2026-05-21T04:53:01","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/arg-agro.com.ar\/actualidad\/industrie-des-amandes-rebond-attendu-danciens-risques-persistants\/"},"modified":"2026-05-21T01:53:02","modified_gmt":"2026-05-21T04:53:02","slug":"industrie-des-amandes-rebond-attendu-danciens-risques-persistants","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/arg-agro.com.ar\/actualidad\/industrie-des-amandes-rebond-attendu-danciens-risques-persistants\/","title":{"rendered":"Industrie des amandes : rebond attendu, d\u2019anciens risques persistants"},"content":{"rendered":"

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L’industrie des amandes californiennes sort lentement d’une de ses p\u00e9riodes de ralentissement les plus douloureuses depuis des ann\u00e9es, mais un nouveau rapport Terrain avertit les cultivateurs et les op\u00e9rateurs que la stabilit\u00e9 r\u00e9cente du secteur ne doit pas \u00eatre interpr\u00e9t\u00e9e comme un retour aux ann\u00e9es de boom.<\/p>\n

L’analyste des cultures sp\u00e9cialis\u00e9es de Terrain, Matt Woolf, indique que l’industrie passe d’une p\u00e9riode de prix en dessous du seuil de rentabilit\u00e9 \u00e0 une p\u00e9riode o\u00f9 les prix sont \u00ab au seuil de rentabilit\u00e9 ou l\u00e9g\u00e8rement au\u2011dessus \u00bb, une am\u00e9lioration significative par rapport \u00e0 2022 et 2023 mais restant bien loin des dynamiques \u00e9conomiques qui ont marqu\u00e9 les ann\u00e9es 2010. Le virage survient apr\u00e8s plusieurs ann\u00e9es d’arrachage de vergers et d’un d\u00e9s\u00e9quilibre douloureux entre l’offre et la demande, bien que certains producteurs r\u00e9\u00e9valuent d\u00e9sormais si la replantation pourrait \u00eatre rentable sur le papier.<\/p>\n

Le rapport cadre ce moment \u00e0 travers une analyse SWOT, soutenant que les m\u00eames forces qui ont port\u00e9 la mont\u00e9e des amandes ont aussi expos\u00e9 cette culture \u00e0 une correction s\u00e9v\u00e8re. Les amandes de Californie sont pass\u00e9es d’une culture de niche \u00e0 la deuxi\u00e8me marchandise agricole de l’\u00c9tat par valeur, avec une production qui a augment\u00e9 \u00e0 un rythme annuel d’environ 4,3 % entre 1990 et 2024. Les pr\u00e9visions de mesure objective de l’USDA pour 2025 placent la production \u00e0 3 milliards de livres, en hausse de 10 % par rapport \u00e0 l’ann\u00e9e pr\u00e9c\u00e9dente, soulignant l’ampleur que l’industrie porte encore.<\/p>\n

Terrain met en \u00e9vidence des forces structurelles majeures : la Californie produit encore environ 75 % \u00e0 80 % des amandes mondiales, b\u00e9n\u00e9ficie d’une base d’exportation diversifi\u00e9e et profite d’un r\u00e9seau de soutien dense comprenant environ 7 600 cultivateurs, pr\u00e8s d’une centaine d’op\u00e9rateurs et un vaste \u00e9cosyst\u00e8me d’abeilles, d’\u00e9quipements, d’entreprises d’irrigation et de transformateurs. Le rapport note qu’une \u00e9tude du UC Agricultural Issues Center estime que l’emploi direct et indirect g\u00e9n\u00e9r\u00e9 par l’industrie s’\u00e9l\u00e8ve \u00e0 environ 110 000 emplois.<\/p>\n

Mais le ralentissement a aussi mis en \u00e9vidence des vuln\u00e9rabilit\u00e9s. La congestion portuaire pendant la pand\u00e9mie a ralenti les exp\u00e9ditions, accumul\u00e9 les stocks et exerc\u00e9 une pression \u00e0 la baisse sur les prix. L’inflation a fait monter les co\u00fbts des intrants, de la main-d’\u0153uvre et de la conformit\u00e9. La Sustainable Groundwater Management Act a ajout\u00e9 une contrainte \u00e0 plus long terme alors que les plans de gestion des eaux souterraines imposaient des choix difficiles concernant les superficies destin\u00e9es \u00e0 des cultures p\u00e9rennes. Terrain indique que les estimations \u00e0 l’\u00e9chelle de l’\u00c9tat sugg\u00e8rent des centaines de milliers d’acres, dont beaucoup de cultures p\u00e9rennes, qui pourraient \u00eatre r\u00e9affect\u00e9s.<\/p>\n

Le commerce est un autre point de pression. La Chine et Hong Kong, qui \u00e9taient autrefois les principales destinations des amandes californiennes, importent d\u00e9sormais davantage d’Australie, aid\u00e9es par des accords commerciaux pr\u00e9f\u00e9rentiels. Terrain affirme que les r\u00e9exportations en Asie du Sud-Est peuvent masquer une partie des flux de produits californiens vers la Chine, mais le r\u00e9acheminement augmente les co\u00fbts et les risques.<\/p>\n

Le volet opportunit\u00e9s est men\u00e9 par l’Inde, d\u00e9sormais la plus grande destination de l’industrie, o\u00f9 la consommation d’amandes par habitant reste bien inf\u00e9rieure \u00e0 celle des \u00c9tats\u2011Unis. Terrain voit \u00e9galement des d\u00e9bouch\u00e9s pour les amandes dans les aliments ax\u00e9s sur les prot\u00e9ines et la sant\u00e9. Mais les menaces augmentent en raison de la g\u00e9opolitique, de l’inflation, de la concurrence du lait d’avoine et d’autres alternatives, et de la mont\u00e9e des m\u00e9dicaments GLP-1, qui pourraient r\u00e9duire la demande de collations.<\/p>\n

La conclusion pour les cultivateurs est prudente plut\u00f4t que sombre. Les bases de l’industrie demeurent solides, mais le prochain cycle de croissance n\u00e9cessitera davantage de couverture des risques, un d\u00e9veloppement des march\u00e9s plus aigu et un examen plus rigoureux des questions d’eau, des co\u00fbts et des tendances de consommation.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":223,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"class_list":["post-222","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-actualidad","generate-columns","tablet-grid-50","mobile-grid-100","grid-parent","grid-50"],"yoast_head":"\nIndustrie des amandes : rebond attendu, d\u2019anciens risques persistants - ARG-AGRO Semilleria Venta de Semillas e Insumos para el Agro<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/arg-agro.com.ar\/actualidad\/industrie-des-amandes-rebond-attendu-danciens-risques-persistants\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"es_ES\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Industrie des amandes : rebond attendu, d\u2019anciens risques persistants - 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