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De mars 2025 \u00e0 f\u00e9vrier 2026, les exportateurs agricoles am\u00e9ricains ont perdu 14,9 milliards de dollars de ventes vers la Chine sur une base annualis\u00e9e en raison de la r\u00e9torsion tarifaire chinoise, selon une nouvelle \u00e9tude, les graines de soja repr\u00e9sentant pr\u00e8s de la moiti\u00e9 des pertes. Le chiffre \u00e9clipse largement les pertes enregistr\u00e9es lors de la premi\u00e8re ann\u00e9e de tensions commerciales entre les \u00c9tats-Unis et la Chine au cours du premier mandat du pr\u00e9sident Donald Trump.<\/p>\n
Une nouvelle analyse d\u2019\u00e9conomistes de l\u2019Universit\u00e9 d\u2019\u00c9tat du Dakota du Nord, dont la publication est pr\u00e9vue mercredi, estime les effets des droits de douane punitifs impos\u00e9s par la Chine l\u2019an dernier.<\/p>\n
Apr\u00e8s que l\u2019administration Trump a impos\u00e9 de nouveaux droits de douane sur la Chine pour son r\u00f4le dans la crise du fentanyl et a relev\u00e9 les tarifs sur l\u2019acier, l\u2019aluminium et les automobiles chinois, les deux camps se sont engag\u00e9s dans une escalade tarifaire mutuelle, qui a vu les droits de douane chinois sur les biens am\u00e9ricains, pond\u00e9r\u00e9s par le commerce, atteindre pr\u00e8s de 150%, selon les donn\u00e9es de l\u2019Institut Peterson d\u2019\u00e9conomie internationale.<\/p>\n
En octobre, les deux parties sont parvenues \u00e0 une tr\u00eave tarifaire \u00e0 Busan, en Cor\u00e9e du Sud, ce qui a ramen\u00e9 les droits de r\u00e9torsion, mais seulement apr\u00e8s plusieurs mois de commerce agricole en berne. M\u00eame apr\u00e8s la tr\u00eave, la Chine applique un droit de 10% sur les exportations am\u00e9ricaines, tandis que les biens chinois restent soumis au tarif global de 10% \u00e9tabli par l\u2019administration.<\/p>\n
Les auteurs de la NDSU estiment que cet \u00e9pisode a co\u00fbt\u00e9 14,9 milliards de dollars de ventes agricoles am\u00e9ricaines \u00e0 la Chine.<\/p>\n
Les graines de soja ont support\u00e9 le plus lourd fardeau des pertes, avec un d\u00e9ficit de 6,8 milliards de dollars de ventes sur l\u2019ann\u00e9e. Mais le b\u0153uf et le coton ont aussi perdu plus d\u2019un milliard de dollars d\u2019exportations, les fruits \u00e0 coque ayant perdu presque autant, et le ma\u00efs environ 333 millions de dollars.<\/p>\n
\u00ab Ensemble, ces cinq produits de base repr\u00e9sentent environ 10,7 milliards de dollars, soit 72% du d\u00e9ficit annualis\u00e9 \u00bb, note le rapport.<\/p>\n
Au niveau des \u00c9tats, les pertes d\u2019exportation les plus importantes proviendraient probablement des \u00c9tats producteurs de soja dans la Corn Belt (la ceinture du ma\u00efs) am\u00e9ricaine. Selon leur composition de la production agricole, l\u2019Iowa serait l\u2019\u00c9tat le plus expos\u00e9 aux droits de r\u00e9torsion, avec 1,2 milliard de dollars d\u2019exportations manqu\u00e9es vers la Chine. La Californie et l\u2019Illinois auraient probablement subi des pertes similaires compte tenu de la configuration de leurs industries agricoles.<\/p>\n
Le Texas et le Kansas pourraient avoir subi des pertes d\u2019environ 900 millions de dollars, tandis que le Nebraska et le Minnesota seraient vuln\u00e9rables \u00e0 environ 700 millions de dollars de pertes.<\/p>\n
Le chiffre de 14,9 milliards de dollars d\u00e9passe les pertes \u00e0 l\u2019exportation enregistr\u00e9es en 2018-2019, lorsque Trump avait relev\u00e9 les tarifs sur la Chine et que P\u00e9kin avait r\u00e9pliqu\u00e9 contre les produits agricoles am\u00e9ricains.<\/p>\n
Les auteurs estiment que cet \u00e9pisode a co\u00fbt\u00e9 \u00e0 l\u2019agriculture am\u00e9ricaine environ 10,4 milliards de dollars de pertes annualis\u00e9es.<\/p>\n
Les effets du dernier conflit commercial pourraient \u00e9galement avoir des r\u00e9percussions plus durables, soutiennent les auteurs. Les exportations agricoles am\u00e9ricaines ont chut\u00e9 des montants similaires lors des deux \u00e9pisodes, mais ils remarquent que les ventes se sont rapidement redress\u00e9es apr\u00e8s l\u2019annonce de l\u2019accord de Phase 1 en 2020.<\/p>\n
\u00ab La pr\u00e9sente s\u00e9rie n\u2019a pas encore montr\u00e9 de rebond comparable \u00bb, \u00e9crivent-ils. Avant la tr\u00eave de novembre, la Chine s\u2019\u00e9tait d\u00e9j\u00e0 tourn\u00e9e vers des fournisseurs br\u00e9siliens et argentins de soja, ce qui a r\u00e9duit les exportations am\u00e9ricaines de soja sur l\u2019ensemble de la r\u00e9colte 2025-2026.<\/p>\n
De plus, le taux persistant de 10% continue de peser sur les ventes agricoles am\u00e9ricaines.<\/p>\n
Les pertes d\u00e9passent aussi l\u2019aide que l\u2019administration Trump avait mise en place pour aider les producteurs am\u00e9ricains \u00e0 compenser les pertes li\u00e9es au commerce et d\u2019autres d\u00e9fis de production. Les responsables ont allou\u00e9 12 milliards de dollars sous le nom de paiements dits \u00ab pont \u00bb en d\u00e9cembre.<\/p>\n
Les l\u00e9gislateurs ont discut\u00e9 d\u2019un nouvel ensemble d\u2019aides, mais une proposition l\u00e9gislative n\u2019a pas encore vu le jour.<\/p>\n
Les auteurs du rapport de la NDSU tiennent \u00e0 pr\u00e9ciser que le chiffre de 14,9 milliards de dollars ne concerne que les exportations perdues vers la Chine. Des ventes agricoles am\u00e9ricaines suppl\u00e9mentaires vers d\u2019autres pays ont partiellement compens\u00e9 les pertes li\u00e9es au commerce. Une augmentation des achats nationaux de produits agricoles aurait \u00e9galement pu att\u00e9nuer les dommages \u00e9conomiques pour les agriculteurs, soutient le rapport.<\/p>\n
La mesure exacte de l\u2019ampleur de ces ventes accrues vers d\u2019autres pays fera l\u2019objet des prochaines recherches de la NDSU, affirment les auteurs.<\/p>\n
Ils notent \u00e9galement que, si ces engagements d\u2019achats annuels par la Chine, d\u2019au moins 17 milliards de dollars en produits agricoles, en plus des engagements sur le soja pris en octobre, se r\u00e9alisent, cela repr\u00e9senterait aussi un rebond important.<\/p>\n
L\u2019engagement sur le soja pourrait valoir entre 11 et 13 milliards de dollars par an, portant les ventes agricoles totales vers la Chine en 2026, 2027 et 2028 \u00e0 des niveaux sup\u00e9rieurs \u00e0 ceux de 2024 mais inf\u00e9rieurs \u00e0 ceux de 2022.<\/p>\n
\u00ab Les r\u00e9sultats r\u00e9alis\u00e9s en 2026 d\u00e9pendront \u00e9galement de la mise en \u0153uvre, du rythme d\u2019ex\u00e9cution par les acheteurs publics et du contexte macro\u00e9conomique et du march\u00e9 des mati\u00e8res premi\u00e8res au cours de la p\u00e9riode d\u2019engagement \u00bb, soutiennent-ils.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":201,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"class_list":["post-200","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-actualidad","generate-columns","tablet-grid-50","mobile-grid-100","grid-parent","grid-50"],"yoast_head":"\n
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